Aikman, F. III, G. L. Mellor, T. Ezer, D. Sheinin, P. Chen, L. Breaker, K. Bosley, and D. B. Rao, 1996: Towards an operational nowcast/forecast system for the U.S. East Coast. In Modern Approaches to Data Assimilation in Ocean Modeling, The Netherlands: Elsevier Science, 347-376.

Abstract: A model system consisting of the Princeton ocean model forced by forecast surface fluxes of momentum and heat from the regional atmospheric Eta model is at the heart of the East Coast Ocean Forecast System. Existing near-real-time data sets, including coastal water level gauge data and satellite-derived sea surface temperature and altimetry data, are being used operationally for model evaluation purposes and ultimately for assimilation into the ocean model. The first twelve months of comparisons between 24-hour forecasted and observed subtidal coastal water levels indicate a meridional average correlation coefficient of 0.65, an rms difference of 10 cm, and shows that the forecasts represent over 60% of the observed subtidal variability. A number of sensitivity experiments are underway and a series of enhancements are soon to be implemented, including modification of the surface heat and momentum fluxes; the inclusion of atmospheric pressure loading, riverine fresh water and surface fresh water (evaporation and precipitation) fluxes, and tidal forcing; and accounting for the effects of thermal expansion and contraction. In order to evaluate and improve the basic ocean model and system, the implementation of data assimilation is currently being withheld, however, data assimilation methodologies have been developed and the sea surface temperature and altimeter data currently available in near-real-time will be used for these purposes.