Manabe, S., R. J. Stouffer, M. J. Spelman, and K. Bryan, 1992: Response of a coupled ocean-atmosphere-land surface model to a gradual increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide. In The Global Role of Tropical Rainfall, Virginia: Deepak Publishing, 93-103.

Abstract: This study investigates the response of a climate model to a gradual increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide. The model is a general circulation model of the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land surface system with a global computational domain, smoothed geography, and seasonal variation of insolation. It is found that the simulated warming of sea surface temperature is very slow over the northern North Atlantic and the circumpolar ocean of the Southern Hemisphere where the vertical mixing of water penetrates very deeply and the rate of deep water formation is relatively fast. With the exception of these two regions, the distribution of the change in surface temperature of the model is qualitatively similar to the equilibrium response of an atmospheric-mixed layer ocean model, which has been the subject of many previous studies.

The increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide affects not only the thermal structure of the coupled model, but also its hydrologic cycle. For example, the global mean rates of both precipitation and evaporation increase. The increase in evaporation rate is particularly large in low latitudes and decreases with increasing latitudes. On the other hand, the increase in the precipitation rate is substantial in high latitudes due to the increased penetration of warm, moisture-rich air into high latitudes. Thus, the rate of runoff in the subarctic basins is increased markedly.

In qualitative agreement with the results of equilibrium response studies, soil moisture is reduced in summer over extensive regions of the middle and high latitudes, such as the North American Great Plains, Western Europe, Northern Canada, and Siberia.