Lau, N-C., 1985: Modeling the seasonal dependence of the atmospheric response to observed El Niños in 1962-76. Monthly Weather Review, 113 (11), 1970-1996.
Abstract: Two 15-year atmospheric GCM integrations are conducted with the lower boundary
over the tropical Pacific being forced by observed month-to-month sea surface
temperature (SST) changes during the period 1962-76. A descriptive account
is given on selected aspects of the 30-year model climatology, as well as
the anomalous model behavior through the life cycles of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes centered in the years 1965, 1969
and 1972. These model results are compared with available observations reported
in the published literature. Particular attention is devoted to the timing
of various simulated meteorological phenomena with respect to the spatially
and temporally evolving SST forcing, and to the climatological seasonal
cycle.
An assessment is made of the capability of the model to simulate the seasonal
dependence of various climatological features relevant to ENSO. The phenomena
examined include the flow field and rainfall in different monsoon regions,
the planetary scale waves in the extratropics, and the low-level convergence
zones in the tropical Pacific Basin.
The evolutionary response of the model atmosphere in a typical ENSO event
is examined using time series of selected circulation indices, composite
charts and Hovmoller diagrams. As the warm SST anomaly appears in the eastern
equatorial Pacific during the boreal spring and subsequently spreads across
the ocean basin, a well-defined sequence of meteorological events is evident
in the model atmosphere. The most notable atmospheric response over the
tropical Pacific Basin includes weakening of the east-west surface pressure
gradient and easterly trades, eastward displacement of the South Pacific
Convergence Zone, southward displacement of the Intertropical Convergence
Zone, above normal precipitation at and east of the date line, and below
normal precipitation over the Indonesian Archipelago. The strongest anomalies
are simulated in the northern winter following a warming off the Peruvian
coast. The model response in this mature stage is characterized by tropospheric
warming throughout the entire tropical zone, and by the appearance in the
tropical upper troposphere of a pair of Pacific anticyclones straddling
the equator. These anticyclonic centers appear as the starting points of
well-organized wave trains spanning the midlatitude zones of both hemispheres.
The Northern Hemisphere wave pattern in the Pacific-North American sector
bears a strong resemblance to that reported in recent observational studies.
The warm Pacific SST anomaly tends to be replaced a year later by a cold
anomaly. The polarities of meteorological anomalies simulated during the
cold phase of the ENSO cycle are mostly opposite to those occurring during
the warm phase.
Time series analysis of different circulation indices, as well as comparison
between simulated amplitudes of atmospheric variability in this experiment
and in a "control" experiment without any prescription of interannual SST
variations, indicate that the impact of equatorial Pacific SST anomalies
on the tropical circulation is much greater than that on the flow patterns
in middle latitudes. In particular, the temporal variance of 200 mb height
in this perturbed SST experiment is larger than the corresponding quantity
in the control experiment by a factor of 2-6 over the tropics; whereas the
same SST fluctuations are much less effective in enhancing the variability
in middle and higher latitudes. Moreover, perturbations in the equatorial
Pacific SST are more strongly correlated with circulation changes in the
tropical atmosphere than with changes in the extratropics.