Wetherald, R. T., and S. Manabe, 1980: Cloud cover and climate sensitivity. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 37 (7), 1485-1510.
Abstract: This study discusses how the sensitivity of climate may be affected by
the variation of cloud cover based on the results from numerical experiments
with a highly simplified, three-dimensional model of the atmospheric general
circulation. The model explicitly computes the heat transport by large-scale
atmospheric disturbances. It contains the following simplifications: a limited
computational domain, an idealized geography, no heat transport by ocean
currents and no seasonal variation. Two versions of the model are constructed.
The first version includes prognostic schemes of cloud cover and its radiative
influences, and the second version uses a prescribed distribution of cloud
cover for the computation of radiative transfer. Two sets of equilibrium
climates are obtained from the long-term integrations of both versions of
the model for several values of the solar constant. Based on the comparison
between the variable and the fixed cloud experiments, the influences of
cloud cover variation on the response of a model climate to an increase
of the solar constant are identified.
It is found that, in response to an increase of the solar constant, cloudiness
diminishes in the upper and middle troposphere at most latitudes and increases
near the earth's surface and the lower stratosphere of the model particularly
in higher latitudes. Because of the changes described above, the total cloud
amount diminishes in the region equatorward of 50 degrees latitude with
the exception of a narrow sub-tropical belt. However, it increases in the
region poleward of this latitude. In both regions, the area mean change
in the net incoming solar radiation, which is attributable to the cloud-cover
change described above, is approximately compensated by the corresponding
change in the outgoing terrestrial radiation at the top of the model atmosphere.
For example, equatorward of 50 degrees latitude, the reduction of both cloud
amount and effective cloud-top height contributes to the increase in the
area-mean flux of outgoing terrestrial radiation and compensates for the
increase in the flux of net incoming solar radiation caused by the reduction
of cloud amount. Poleward of 50 degrees latitude, the increase of cloudiness
contributes to the reduction of both net incoming solar and outgoing terrestrial
fluxes at the top of the model atmosphere. Although the effective cloud-top
height does not change as it does in lower latitudes, the changes of these
fluxes approximately compensate each other because of the smallness of insolation
in high latitudes. Owing to the compensations mentioned above, the changes
of cloud cover have a relatively minor effect on the sensitivity of the
area-mean climate of the model.