Manabe, S., and R. T. Wetherald, 1975: The effects of doubling CO₂ concentration on the climate of a general circulation model. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 32 (1), 3-15.

Abstract: An attempt is made to estimate the temperature changes resulting from doubling the present CO₂ concentration by the use of a simplified three-dimensional general circulation model. This model contains the following simplifications: a limtied computational domain, an idealized topography, no heat transport by ocean currents, and fixed cloudiness. Despite these limitations, the results from this computation yield some indication of how the increase of CO₂ concentration may affect the distribution of temperature in the atmosphere. It is shown that the CO₂ increase raises the temperature of the model troposphere, whereas it lowers that of the model stratosphere. The tropospheric warming is somewhat larger than that expected from a radiative-convective equililbrium model. In particular, the increase of surface temperature in higher latitudes is magnified due to the recession of the snow boundary and the thermal stability of the lower troposphere which limits convective heating to the lowest layer. It is also shown that the doubling of carbon dioxide significantly increases the intensity of the hydrologic cycle of the model.